LlamaGuard PT Oracle

Implied rate EMA ($r_{\text{EMA}}$)

Every AnswerUpdated round from the shadow's LlamaGuardOracle: the EMA of Pendle's lastLnImpliedRate. This is the input everything below derives from.

LlamaRisk

Shadow $d_{\text{target}}$ vs real d

$d_{\text{target}}=(1-e^{-r_{\text{EMA}}\tau })/\tau$, recomputed at every EMA round; the published and steward lines only move on writes.

LlamaRisk

When the two lines sit close together, the humans and the algorithm agree on the fair rate; a steward update stepping the real d toward the shadow's continuously-computed target is the agreement made visible.

Price deviation vs the ±30 bps publish band

$\text{dev}=(P_{\text{oracle}}-P_{\text{amm}})/P_{\text{oracle}}$ at every EMA round, using the real adapter's d. Inside the shaded band the discount workflow stays silent by design; it would publish the moment the line leaves the band.

LlamaRisk

This chart is the discount workflow's entire decision, drawn over time. While the line stays inside the band the shadow correctly publishes no discount updates; the moment it leaves the band, a publish fires on the next 4h run.